DAMPAK GUNCANGAN DAN KONTRIBUSI ANTARA ENERGI, EMISI KARBON TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN PDB DI INDONESIA

Khubbi Abdillah; Syahrituah Siregar; Yunita Sopiana

doi:10.35906/jep.v11i2.2599

DAMPAK GUNCANGAN DAN KONTRIBUSI ANTARA ENERGI, EMISI KARBON TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN PDB DI INDONESIA

Khubbi Abdillah, Syahrituah Siregar, Yunita Sopiana

Abstract

ABSTRAK

Tingginya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tidak diikuti dengan keseimbangan pelestarian lingkungan akan menyebabkan sebuah dilema pembangunan. PDB dapat mendorong adanya peningkatan standar hidup masyarakat, namun jika PDB yang disumbang dari sektor energi tidak dikelola secara baik akan menimbulkan kerusakan lingkungan akibat adanya peningkatan volume yang dihasilkan dari emisi kabon. Hal ini bertentangan dengan tujuan pembangunan berkelanjutan yang salah satu fokus utamanya mengangkat isu lingkungan dan konservasi sumber daya alam dengan memanfaatkan sumber energi terbarukan. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisis dampak guncangan dan kontribusi antara energi, emisi karbon terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia tahun 1970-2024 menggunakan metode Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) dengan variabel kontrol pembentukan modal tetap bruto dan utang luar negeri sebagai sumber pembiayaan negara. Hasil temuan menunjukkan guncangan PDB direspon positif oleh energi dan emisi karbon menuju titik keseimbangan secara melambat. Kontribusi terbesar PDB adalah emisi karbon, sedangkan energi dan emisi karbon memiliki kontribusi dengan pergerakan fluktuatif menurun. Untuk itu, diperlukan strategi kebijakan pembangunan energi terbarukan ramah lingkungan.

ABSTRACT

High economic growth that is not accompanied by a balance between environmental conservation will create a development dilemma. GDP can drive improvements in people's living standards, but if GDP contributed by the energy sector is not managed properly, it will cause environmental damage due to the increased volume of carbon emissions. This contradicts the goals of sustainable development, one of the main focuses of which is addressing environmental issues and natural resource conservation by utilizing renewable energy sources. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of shocks and the contribution of energy and carbon emissions to economic growth in Indonesia from 1970 to 2024 using the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method with control variables of gross fixed capital formation and foreign debt as sources of state financing. The findings show that energy and carbon emissions respond positively to GDP shocks, slowing towards equilibrium. The largest contribution to GDP is carbon emissions, while energy and carbon emissions contribute with fluctuating downward movements. Therefore, an environmentally friendly renewable energy development policy strategy is needed

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